A study led by MIT economist, David Autor, reveals that technology has replaced more American jobs than it has created since 1940, and particularly since 1980. This is due to a rise in the rate of automation alongside a slower rate of augmentation over the past four decades. The researchers developed a new method to conduct the study, examining tens of thousands of American census job categories relative to the contents of American patents over the past century.
The study finds that around 60% of jobs in the U.S today have been formed since 1940. The approach used by the researchers involves analysis of about 35,000 job categories as listed in the U.S. Census Bureau reports, with a view to how these have evolved over time. The researchers also used natural language processing tools to analyze the contents of every American patent that was filed post 1920. This process allowed them to ascertain links between upcoming technologies and their effects on employment.
Highly educated professional workers are more likely to work in new fields created by technology, which tend to comprise high-paying and low-income jobs. The research also points to outcomes of automation and augmentation often occurring within the same industry. Industries show fewer machinists but more systems analysts for instance.
Within the study period, technology’s negative impact on employment was more than twice as great from 1980 to 2018, as compared to 1940 to 1980. From 1980, jobs like cabinetmakers and machinists have lessened due to automation, while jobs like industrial engineers, operations analysts and systems researchers have increased.
The research also underscores how bigger consumer demands can serve to ignite technological innovation. However, predicting future trends for innovation, and the impact these may have on employment, remains challenging. As Autor said, “AI is really different.” It has the potential to replace some high-skilled expertise but might complement decision-making tasks. He adds that it may take time to fully understand the strengths and weaknesses of new technologies.
Autor believes the study has opened the door to new ways for studying the relationship between job loss, job creation, and technological innovation as it has “documented and quantified how much technology augments people’s jobs”, beyond just automation and its impacts on job displacement.
