A new study led by MIT economist David Autor reveals that most work in the U.S. today is new work, with a majority of jobs being in occupations that have only emerged widely since 1940. The study found that about six out of ten jobs people are doing currently did not exist in 1940, which indicates the rapid evolution and transformation of the labor market largely driven by technological progress and changing demographic trends.
The study, titled “New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018,” provides a detailed examination of how jobs have changed over the last eight decades. According to the research, many new jobs are created by advancements in technology, while some are born from changing consumer demands, such as health care services jobs catering to the requirements of an aging population.
Going further, the study highlights a visible shift in the nature of job creation. During the initial part of the study period, from 1940 to 1980, many new jobs were middle-class manufacturing and clerical jobs. However, in the subsequent decades, new job creation often involved either highly paid professional work or lower-wage service work. This trend may have contributed to the deepening income inequality in the U.S.
Autor and his team utilized natural language processing techniques and explored government data about jobs and patents to trace the connections between innovations and job creation. The research points out that new jobs often emerge as a direct result of technological innovations; for instance, the inception of job roles like “Engineers of computer applications”, “Circuit layout designers”, and “Solar photovoltaic electrician”.
However, technological progress is not the sole generator of new jobs. Changes in consumer preferences and behaviors also lead to the creation of new occupational roles. For example, “Tattooers”, “Hypnotherapists”, and “Conference planners” became recognized job categories due to shifts in societal trends and consumer demand.
The study has intriguing implications for understanding how changing technology and consumer demands intersect with labor market outcomes. It also tackles the complex question of whether technology excessively replaces jobs or it simultaneously creates new ones. This topic is particularly pertinent in the current era when evolving technologies including Artificial Intelligence are predicted to significantly transform work.
Finally, the study underscores that disparities in job creation have arisen across educational levels. Workers with some college education have seen many more new jobs compared to their less-educated counterparts. Conventionally “middle-skill” jobs have decreased, replaced by high-skilled professional roles requiring college degrees and lower-skilled service jobs often not requiring higher education. However, Autor believes that this could significantly change, as we are currently in a potentially transformative phase of technological transition.
