New research from MIT suggests that approximately 60% of current jobs did not exist in 1940. Led by MIT economist David Autor, the study examined new job creation in the US from 1940 to 2018. The researchers found that many new jobs were created by technological advancements, although some originated from consumer demand, such as in the healthcare sector.
The study also highlighted a divide in job creation. During the first 40 years of this period, new jobs were largely middle-class manufacturing and clerical roles. However, in the last 40 years, job creation frequently involved either highly paid professional work or lower-wage service work.
David Autor and his team also addressed the question of technology’s effect on job creation and replacement. To carry out the study, they analyzed government data on jobs and patents, identifying correlations between innovations and job creation. They found that new technologies often created distinct forms of work, such as ‘Engineers of computer applications’ first appearing in 1970, or ‘Solar photovoltaic electricians’ in 2018.
However, new jobs can also emerge through changing consumer needs. Positions like ‘Tattooers’ were added to the U.S. census job category in 1950, ‘Hypnotherapists’ in 1980, and ‘Conference planners’ in 1990. New forms of healthcare jobs are also emerging due to an aging baby boomer population.
The researchers found that job creation varies across different sectors. For instance, approximately 74% of professional jobs were created since 1940, whereas in manufacturing, this figure stood at only 46%.
The study identified two distinct 40-year periods regarding job creation. From 1940 to 1980, jobs generated were typically related to manufacturing and middle-income clerical roles. From 1980 onwards, job creation tended towards high-end professional work and low-paying service-sector jobs. Also, employees with some college experience were found to be 25% more likely to work in new occupations than those without a high school diploma.
In conclusion, Autor stressed that while the majority of new work is created for college graduates, this situation is constantly evolving due to technological transitions. His team’s research also delved into how advancing technologies such as artificial intelligence might affect the workforce by creating new jobs or replacing existing ones through automation. These results are detailed in the second part of the study. This research was partially funded by organizations such as the Carnegie Corporation, Google, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
