New work in the U.S., or work in occupations that have largely emerged since 1940, constitute the majority of jobs, according to a comprehensive new study led by MIT economist David Autor. The research found that most of today’s jobs require expertise that didn’t exist or wasn’t relevant in 1940.
The study, which examined the period between 1940 and 2018, data from U.S. census forms, and natural language processing of related patent descriptions, found that nine in 10 people currently work in occupations that didn’t exist in 1940. The significance of this finding is that many of these jobs were created as a result of technological innovations. However, some new occupations also emerged due to shifts in consumer demand, such as health care and personal service sector positions aimed at serving America’s aging population.
According to the study, new job creation in the U.S. shows a clear divide between the first and the second half of this nearly 80-year period. From 1940 to 1980, the focus was largely on middle-class manufacturing and clerical jobs due to America becoming a postwar manufacturing powerhouse. From the 1980s onward, however, new job creation has been focused on highly paid professional work or lower-wage service work, due to both increased automation and a decline in manufacturing.
The research also addressed the impact of technology on employment, examining whether it creates or replaces jobs. While new technologies can create new jobs by opening new fields of work, they can also lead to job loss by automating existing roles. However, the extent of this impact is yet to be fully understood and remains a key focus of current research.
In terms of education, the study found that employees with some college experience were 25% more likely to work in new occupations compared to those with less than a high school diploma. This reveals a concern about the disparity in job creation for different education levels, with more low-skill, service-focused roles being generated for non-college graduates.
Autor acknowledges the potential for technology to reshape the job landscape, particularly given the rise of artificial intelligence. This heralds a ‘period of potentially consequential technology transition’, the outcomes of which are yet to be determined. Future research will explore this further. The paper, “New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018,” was published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics. The study was supported by funds from several organizations including the Carnegie Corporation, Google, and the MIT Work of the Future Task Force.
