New research led by David Autor, Ford Professor of Economics at MIT, suggests that the jobs landscape in the US has been largely shaped by the emergence of occupations that did not necessarily exist pre-1940. The study, which covers employment developments between 1940 to 2018, showed that about six of every 10 jobs in existence today were non-existent in the 1940s.
Several factors have contributed to this new job creation, including technological advancements and shifting consumer needs, such as the increasing demand for health care services due to the growing elderly population. However, Autor emphasizes that not all new jobs were borne out of technology or certain consumer demands – some are also a product of the progressive “professionalization” of certain roles and occupations.
Analyzing the data in demographics also reveals an interesting trend. The job market for skilled workers, primarily those with college degrees, has seen an increase of 74% for specialized white-collar roles and 85% for health services roles alone. However, only 46% of these new jobs were in the manufacturing sector.
In the 40-year period immediately following 1940, the US transformed into a significant post-war manufacturing powerhouse. This was reflected by a boom in production jobs and the growth of a myriad of middle-income office jobs. However, the second half of the studied period (from 1980 onwards) saw a noticeable shift in the employment landscape. Manufacturing began to decline in the US, and automation started replacing clerical jobs. Consequently, since 1980, there is a growing trend of job creation for highly specialized and professional work on the one hand, and lower-paying service sector jobs on the other.
Another critical question examined in the study is to what extent technology can create new jobs and replace existing ones. The employment implications of technological advancements like AI are still not clear. However, the team has produced new findings on this topic, which were discussed in part two of the MIT News feature.
The data used in the study was primarily drawn from government records about jobs and patents. The process involved analyzing the links between innovation and subsequent job creation by using natural language processing techniques, patent data, and census data.
In conclusion, the research shows that the US employment landscape has experienced significant shifts since 1940, where job creation has primarily resulted from technological growth, changing consumer demands, and the professionalization of certain roles. However, Autor believes there’s potential for consequential change in the near future due to rapid technological advancements.
